The following propositions seem to me to be probably true: Had Ted Cruz or Josh Hawley been Vice President, Donald Trump would now be the President of the United States. Swing state legislators would have cooperated to that end. Most elected Republicans, whether or not they participated in the coup, would not have objected and very few would have resisted. Most of the Republicans rank and file would have celebrated.
These next propositions appear on the basis of current
evidence yet more highly probable: A number of current candidates for positions
involving the counting or tabulating ballots or the certifying of elections in the
states are volunteering or running to make sure that the 2024 election goes the
“right way,” whatever the initial ballot count shows. The legislatures of some states
will arrogate to themselves the final say as to the elector list to be sent to Washington.
The risk that the next coup attempt will succeed is greater than the prior
probability of success of the 2021 version. Most of the Republican rank and
file will celebrate.
The experiment of the United States in democratic
republicanism will have come to an end.
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