Can Putin Blackmail Trump?

Can Putin Blackmail Trump?

By the inaugural week we have reason to be concerned that Putin may have some serious material with which to blackmail Trump. Even Trump's initial denial that Russia interfered in the election, however, already gave Putin some leverage. Trump's post-briefing concession that the Russians did it, lessens the damage Putin could do by publicly elaborating just how much the Russians did. Even if not one word of the Steele report turns out to be accurate, Trump's use of the Russian-hacked emails on the stump, his reluctance to admit Russian involvement, and his less than honest attempts to minimize election effects have left him vulnerable to Putin's future extortions.

Suppose, instead of reflexively protecting his ego by blustering that it was impossible that US intelligence could be correct as to Putin's motives and actions, the President Elect had said something like, “I am confident it did not affect the election results, but any possibility of foreign interference in our elections should be taken seriously, and I will look carefully at whatever we ultimately discover as to the truth or falsity of these allegations.”

Perhaps Trump believes that Vladimir Putin is statesman of such high integrity that he would never stoop to low tactics. Perhaps he believes that Putin was neutral as between Clinton and himself. I am not inclined to think Trump that dense, however.

There are serious questions about the international course of a country led by a man whose personal pride leads him to discount a priori the conclusions of the intelligence community. This, I will not discuss as it has already been well argued by persons with appropriate qualifications to assess such matters.

My concern here is the following possible future private conversation between Putin and Trump:

Putin:The Russian minority in Lithuania is oppressed by the current government. We are working towards a government in Vilnius that is fair to that minority and that will return to the traditional close friendship and cooperation between Lithuania and Russia. I trust you will stand by your pre-election intimation that the US will not interfere in the Baltics – especially in favor of a NATO deadbeat like Lithuania. Your instincts, as usual, were spot on.

Trump: I will be happy to see better relations between Russia and Lithuania, as I am happy with the warming relations we have brought about between our own two countries. And you are right that my instincts are great. You must understand, however, that something I may have said in the campaign does not always represent a fixed commitment. Everything is open to negotiation.

Putin: Well as you formulate your negotiation strategy on the Baltics, please bear in mind that if you cross me on this, I can go public with the fact that I made you the President of the United States.

Trump: You didn't; the people love me.

Putin: Yes, of course. You know, I can read the numbers. But this is the bottom line: I can release documents that show beyond any doubt that it was our explicit policy to do whatever we could to make sure that you beat that Clinton woman, and we did a lot. Your statements about your own country's intelligence is going to make you look naive and stupid in the light of our evidence. Like you, I can make a big splash when I want to.

Trump: Let's talk about this Lithuania business.